排队论在导弹防御体系射击效能中的应用

针对当前空袭手段多样化、综合化和一体化的特点,运用排队论方法,设计了一种基于排队论的射击效能评估模型。该模型综合考虑了各种因素对舰空导弹射击效能的影响,当编队的配置(如防御层数、通道数量)有所变化时,依然可以灵活运用上述模型对编队射击效能做出准确评估。     

过程方法在防化科研质量管理系统中的应用

介绍了根据国军标要求建立的科研质量管理系统．运用“过程方法”,对现行科研体制下的科研进程进行了识别,并提出了具体的控制要求。     

基于遗传算法的弹炮混编防空群火力分配

近期局部战争中的防空作战经验表明:实施弹炮混编可以大大提高防空武器系统的作战效能,而如何实施有效的火力分配又是其中的一个重要环节.针对陆军弹炮混编防空群射击指挥中的火力分配问题,简要分析了防空导弹和高炮武器系统射击的不同特点,提出了弹炮混编防空群的火力分配方法,并建立了优化火力分配方案的数学模型.在此基础上,采用遗传算法对此模型求解.结果表明,遗传算法为弹炮混编防空群的火力优化分配问题提供了一条有效途径.     

舰艇编队对空防御火力分配评价模型

未来高技术条件下水面舰艇编队防空作战能力是其生存能力的关键因素.对舰艇编队防空来讲,进行硬抗击的武器主要是舰空导弹和舰炮两种,如何合理地利用这些武器,最大地发挥舰艇编队的防空作战能力,成为舰艇对空防御作战研究的一个重要课题.结合舰艇编队对空防御的实际情况,利用模糊数学的方法,建立了舰艇编队对空防御火力分配方案的模糊综合评价模型.     

THE EFFECTS OF THE WORLD DEFENSE INDUSTRY AND US MILITARY AID TO ISRAEL ON THE ISRAELI DEFENSE INDUSTRY: A DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCTS MODEL

This paper models the interactions between the defense industry market structure and the defense needs of Israel, the USA and Western Europe, which produce several heterogeneous defense goods. The model specifies that the defense industries of the US and Europe are ‘large’ while that of Israel is ‘small’. The US military aid to Israel is also an integral part of the model. The results show that net defense costs of Israel are minimal when the number of its defense firms is one. The model predicts that an increase in US military aid reduces Israel’s government expenditure, its defense industry’s profits and its net defense costs.     

The case for demilitarising Lesotho

ABSTRACT

The Kingdom of Lesotho spends around five per cent of its annual budget – some 700 million Maloti ($US52.6 million) in 2017 – on the Lesotho Defence Force (LDF). Lesotho’s geographical position means that the LDF has no meaningful role regarding its primary function of defending the country from external aggression and it hardly engages in its secondary functions. In addition, the LDF has a long history of interference with democratic processes and engaging in human rights abuse. The financial resources currently allocated to the LDF could do far more for security, widely defined, if they were allocated to a number of other government expenditure categories.     

Estimating non‐transparent military expenditures: The case of china (PRC)∗

Data limitations arising from non‐transparency in military expenditure reporting impose significant constraints on economists studying country and comparative developments in this field. This article focuses on the case of China. It reviews the recent literature on China's military expenditure, examines the variance in published estimates, and identifies three factors which help explain the variance: budgetary falsification; non‐budgeted PLA revenue; and the US dollar purchasing‐power parity of the yuan. Conclusions emphasize important policy implications of such variance and suggest a more active role for defence economists in a field of research generating considerable attention from international relations scholars.     

Country survey IX: Spain

From the early 1980s Spain embarked on a wide‐ranging process of military reform, from organisational changes to defence industrial policies. Investment in military equipment was set to grow, policies were drawn up to foster the domestic defence industrial base, defence R&D rocketed, and Spain joined a myriad of international arms development programmes. Yet, by 1991 the process of reform had run out of steam. Expenditure planning proved unreliable, and firms suffered from sharp cutbacks in procurement expenditure. The model of defence industrial growth sketched in the mid‐1980s had floundered. The Spanish case provides an example of how the quest to maximise defence procurement from domestic sources can fall victim to industrial and budgetary constraints. Spanish defence producers are now becoming increasingly intertwined with foreign defence companies.     

The structure of the defense industry and the security needs of the country: a differentiated products model

This paper models the interactions between the defense needs of the USA and Western Europe, which produce several heterogeneous defense goods, and the defense industry market structure. The results show that net defense costs of the USA and Europe are lower when the number of defense firms in each arms‐producing country is small and when the world prices of the defense goods are high. The model predicts that the increase in world prices will crowd‐out countries in the developing world from the market for modern weapon systems and may force them to develop and use ‘cheap and dirty’ weapon systems.     

Country survey X: Defence spending in Turkey

This paper provides a country survey of the Turkish defence economy. Turkey is a member of NATO alliance and is strategically located between Europe and Middle East. Moreover, Turkey has a high defence burden and high economic growth. The first part of the survey presents a brief economic background of Turkey, its armed forces, the defence industry, its modernisation and trends in Turkish defence expenditure. The rest of the paper focuses on the relationships between defence spending and economic growth. The effect of defence spending on economic growth is econometrically estimated using a supply side model. Both externality effects and the size effect of defence spending are estimated for Turkey. The study concludes that defence expenditure stimulates economic growth while externalities from the defence sector to the rest of economy are negative for Turkey.